2013, not a good year for pundits

Of all the predictions of what the year will bring, 2013 has so far been unsurprising. A Conservative Government, having a big and meaningless argument about Europe. David Cameron’s speech is not, as many like the argue, the most important since he became PM. Although the European elections are the next set of national elections, the General Election will not be fought on whether we are ‘in’ or ‘out’ of Europe.

So why is there all this hullabaloo about David Cameron’s speech?

The problem is that it is difficult to work out what will actually happen in the year ahead. Economic, political and social changes have meant that it is very difficult to work out what will happen in the next month, let alone year. Also, those that are often doing the predicting are the same talking heads that failed to predict the recession,  the Coalition government or the Arab spring. So why should we trust them? With everyone (including myself) blogging and making just as accurate predictions, why do they know more than anyone else. There is have little evidence of what they said has recently come true.

That is why people such as Nate Silver  changed the role of the political pundit and political predictions. Without being able to accurately predict what will actually happen, a well-paid political pundit is as useful as a blogger. This is shown no better than Karl Rove’s beautiful meltdown, when failing to predict the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election.

So 2013 could be the end of the talking head. But what does this have to do with David Cameron’s speech?

The reason why David Cameron’s speech has caused such a storm is because, for the moment, the media has to stick on safe ground. And Europe is just that.

So if we get more Nate Silvers and less Karl Roves, maybe 2013 won’t be a bad year after all.

 

Is David Cameron the UK’s Mitt Romney?

Yes, this is a daft question. Or as put by John Rentoul a ‘Question to Which the Answer is No’ but there is a reason why I ask this question.

David Cameron, of course, became Prime Minister whereas Mitt Romney is now searching for a job, not writing his inaugural speech. But is there one similarity, have they both presided over right -wing political parties who may soon become unelectable?

Both Gideon Rachman in the FT (£) and Maureen Dowd in the New York Times have written excellent articles about how the GOP may now be out of power for a generation because they have not taken account of the huge demographic changes taking place in the US.

The census data released this week showed that there are huge changes taking place in the UK. Great Britain is growing ever more diverse, ever more secular and people are now better educated. This is a Britain which is not represented by today’s political system, lest the government. The pool of voters that elections have been fought over for the past 30 years is diminishing. A party that speaks to the Britain that the census data revealed will be a party that will be in power for a long time.

Ed Miliband’s statement at this week’s PMQs was one of the best lines he has had for a while. He said, “the Tories hit people who they will never meet, or whose lives the will ever understand”. The right-wing press screamed ‘Class War’ as soon as the words left his mouth and this could be a message that quickly ends up in the political gutter. But a nuanced message could mean that Ed Miliband and the Labour Party speak to the people who live in Britain today.

As I said in my previous post, it is time the Labour leadership looked beyond short term politics and looked hard at the Census data to work out how they will represent the people, families and communities that actually exist in Britain today. The data is clear. Britain has changed. If Labour want to stay in power for a generation they will have to ask tough questions and lose political battles along the way but the end rewards could be great.

He who shouts loudest

Last week showed that often in politics it is not knowing the right answer but being louder than your opponent.

Leveson

The Leveson report was not worth the 2000 pages which it was written on. Indeed everyone, apart from those in Parliament, realised that it discussed a media that no longer exists. By just considering the printed press it discussed a press that is soon unlikely to exist in its current form. Any political gain that can be got from this debate will be short-lived as come 2015 it is likely that the public will once again focus on the economy, healthcare and education. Not press regulation. More importantly, just before Leveson was released Lord MacAlpine responded to false twitter allegations by demanding a donation to charity and an apology. This elegant response showed thought without becoming too heavy handed. This could surely be a guide for those with less money but who are falsely accused on twitter. This would need no further regulation just a body to undertake these responsibilities. If you tweet or write something stupid on a blog, instead of going to court why not just be forced to recognise your mistake and make a donation.

UKIP

After a number of by-elections last Thursday, it seemed that there was a new force in politics. UKIP are apparently on the rise and are set to win such a great number of seats in the next election that there could be a Conservative-UKIP pact. Beyond all this shouting it is likely that UKIPs rise is possibly due to constant reports that a Eurozone end-of-days is always round the corner and that the usual third party, the Lib Dems, are now in government. It is likely that come 2015 people will revert to the big three parties as they know little about UKIP’s position on the economy, healthcare and education (apart from any failure being the fault of the EU).

So what does all this shouting mean for Labour? The next election will not be won or lost because the leadership handled the Leveson crisis well. The next election will be won and lost when they try to sell their the ideas for a 21st century economy, making sure everyone can access the best healthcare and how we have an education system so that all children are able to reach their potential in 2015. It may not win bring success in the short term, but it is time Labour stopped shouting and started to inspire people across the UK.

Lessons from America

(It has now been a week since the US election, so hopefully I can get away with writing this post.)

Now the dust has settled from the US election what are the lessons for the UK?

1) Data

This was the data election. I can add very little to what has been written before. This excellent blog explains how data can be used by UK to improve Social Innovation in the UK.

And of course,  Nate Silver showed what data can do not just for a campaign but for elections and democracy as a whole. One of my favourite moments from the whole election was when Karl Rove refused to believe the maths that Nate Silver had correctly predicted the whole time. These brilliant predictions using a range of data was significantly more accurate than the pundits, who took up hundreds of hours on the cable news incorrectly spouting their ‘crystal ball predictions’.

One of the best unintended consequences of the whole election was that ‘political pundits’ now seem ridiculous. In the UK they called it wrong for the 2010 election, with most saying that the Conservatives would get a small majority even though the sums never added up.

Nate Silver has finally shone a light showing the Emperor’s New Clothes nature of punditry. We need strong debate and opinions we do not need crystal ball gazing. It wastes too much time on the news at a time when the big issues often get short thrift.

2) People

As I’ve said before on the blog, this election was won on the ground It was won by thousands of dedicated people across the United States volunteering a huge amount of their time to help with the campaign. Some were seasoned campaigners but the vast majority of people were doing it because they believed and were inspired by Obama. I was told it was different to 2008 but the swathes of people who volunteered in Richmond showed that Obama can still inspire people to go above and beyond.

If Labour is only to take away one point from the election it has to be this: does the current party and leadership inspire people to knock that extra door or to make that extra phone call? Are Labour, who can rightly claim to be the party of change come 2015, building a platform which will bring in the number of volunteers needed to win a modern election? If not why?

I believe that Labour needs to start making these changes now. It has to create a platform that inspires people, not just a message that works well with middle England. It needs to build a grassroots movement that can bring out voters in numbers the Conservatives could never realise. It is only through these means that Labour could seriously consider returning to power.

Labour is not there yet, there is still time but 2015 is not that far away.

Richmond, Virginia, #winning

A short story from election day

Election day was an early start. My alarm went off at 4:30. I am not usually very spritely in the morning but yesterday was one of the easiest days to get out of bed. I woke without that much nervousness, I, like other volunteers or fellows or field officers or regional field directors (etc…), knew exactly what I had to do and knew that if it went well at where I was based the chances of President Obama storming Richmond, thereby winning Virginia, increased by that tiny fraction of a percent. Increase this across Richmond, extrapolate across the state of Virginia and then multiply that across the battleground States across the US and you begin to see how Obama won, and won by the margin he did. Indeed, people will continue to come up with reasons upon reasons why Obama won (or for that matter Romney lost). I have no doubt it was because there were tens of thousands of people like me waking up at an awful hour on election day knowing exactly what I had to do. The ground organsation is the greatest in modern political history.

The morning flew by. I knew this by the speech I would give on the few occassions when I would train phonebankers (the majority of this was done by our Phonebank Captain Angelo who was superb). As part of the training, you aim to get volunteers to ask people who they are calling to ‘make a plan’. By making a plan studies have shown people are far more likely to vote. The morning flew by so quickly that before I knew it, I realised that people could only ‘make a plan’ for lunchtime and after work. Then, in what seemed like a blink of an eye, they could only make a plan by leaving the house and getting to the polls”.. well… NOW!”. The stream of people coming through the door at 408 E. Main Street was steady but never overwhelming (again to the great organisation that had been in prepared weeks, if not months before). It didn’t dawn on me the amount of people we had making calls until I had a minute to go upstairs and look around. Every seat or even clear bit of floorspace was taken by volunteers. The people making the calls were young, old, black, white, hispanic, rich, poor etc etc. It was as diverse a group as you could imagine. Many who I got to speak had incredible stories and inspiring reasons for why they decided to volunteer on election day.

As we entered the final few hours, the focus in the office shifted to get as many people knocking doors as possible. We needed to get as many people as we could to the polls. In that slightly quieter time I began to get nervous and realised what was at stake. At 6 I went to knock some final few doors and went to a local polling station to check everyone was ok. It was at 7 when I got, really, really nervous. We could no longer look at fivethirtyeight or Real Clear Politics. The votes were in the bank, the polls were closed. It was all over bar the shouting and all we could do was sit and wait.  In those first few minutes, it didn’t look that good, especially in Virginia when the South-West, precincts which are more conservative, began to report.

For me, I began to relax and felt it was going to be our night when Pennsylvania was called early. If Romney was going to push Obama, I felt this was one of the states that was going to be called later at 1 or 2am. And, of course, we didn’t celebrate until Ohio was called. But at that point it wasn’t over for us. We all wanted one more result to come in. One more result for an amazing team, who worked incredibly hard (and who I was lucky enough to join for a few weeks). I have no idea what time Virginia was called, I could very easily Google this but I prefer not knowing. Our office, full of staff and volunteers, erupted. Tears were shed. Beer was drunk. Many, many hugs were given. The achievement in Richmond had been great which made the victory in Viriginia that bit sweeter.

The rest of the night is a blur, for obvious reasons, but when I got back into bed a full 24 hours after I got up. I realised just how lucky I was to be involved in the campaign.

A little piece of my heart will always be in Richmond, Virginia. This city and the people who I met reaffirmed my belief that you can achieve great things with a group of brilliant, smart, friendly and highly dedicated people.

Thank you to all.

Money v. (wo)men

The previous two weeks I have been lucky enough to work on Obama campaign in Richmond, Virginia. In those two weeks I have learnt enough to fill many, many blogs. I’ll begin with one issue which could not only decide this election but one that could have a profound effect on all elections both in the US and in the UK. This election, unlike all others, has pitted money against people and whoever wins, whether this is Obama (I hope) and Romney (I fear), could then change how all other elections are run.

This is, of course, not to undermine other factors – Romney’s ’47%’ and ‘women’s in binders’ gaffe or Obama’s Epic Fail in the first debate – but these only underlined previously held views. This election, like all elections, is won and lost on the ground. Cleggmania is a perfect example of how a party can be swept along by opinion polls. It is also a great example of how it can be very difficult to convert such a poll lead if you do not have the people on the ground to deliver. Even though they may have polled higher than Labour at certain times in April 2010. It was an impossible task for the Lib Dems to deliver the polls into seats.

What has been been striking volunteering on the Obama campaign is the huge grassroots operation which is in place. The machine is quite incredible. A diverse range of people, although mostly young, they work very hard over a long period of time to develop strong networks in neighbourhoods and communities so that come election day they are able to turn out voters and (hopefully) deliver the state for President Obama on November 6th. This machine is one of the best campaign tools ever created it is far more complex then any social media tool that was eulogised over in the UK following Obama’s victory in ’08. Should Obama retain his seat in the Oval Office, it is due to this system of brilliant, highly committed individuals.

What it has come up against is one of the biggest spending campaigns in election history. Spending which has not come from conventional sources. Indeed at time of writing, and according to the New York Times, Obama has raised more money than Romney. What is not included is the huge spending that is being undertaken by the Super PACS, who (according to the WSJ) have spent almost $400 million this campaign, the majority of which had been to aid the Romney campaign. One striking thing you discover if you spend any time in the US is the amount of airtime that these Super PACs have bought. One of many reasons why this election is different from 2008 is that it before Supreme Court decision on Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, which allowed the expansion of PACS. Should Romney win, he will owe a lot to these organisations that have been given free rein to spend as much money as possible on elections.

So why is this important to the UK? They say that when the US economy sneezes, the rest of the world economy catches a cold. The same is true of how the US Political system influences the UK political system. Famously, following Obama’s use of social media in 2008, the Conservatives introduced an iPhone app. All UK political parties will be looking to the US to influence what they will do in 2015. Should the Democrats win people will look to copy Obama’s community organisational skills, should the Republicans win expect an expensive campaign come 2015. We may not have an air war, like in the US, but they are many ways to spend a lot of money in the UK election.

There are 13 days to go in the US election. There are many reasons why I want President Obama to win but in a time of the 1% v. 99% I hope the election will show that the power of people can still sometimes defeat the power of money.

One Nation…

Ed’s Miliband speech this week impressed many. It was undoubtedly the best speech Ed has ever given but it still may have missed the spot for any long term gain. It was, one could argue, like a Brownian budget, great on the first day but looking shaky the week later.

Some reasons are personal. I wanted Ed to come out fighting. Like all political geeks, I have watched too many episodes of the West Wing and hoped that Ed would deliver the passion that Bruno Gianelli delivers in this brilliant clip. It is time Labour fought for what they achieved in the thirteen years they were in power. If they do not fight for it now, it will be used by others against them. Every time Ed delivers a big speech he should discuss the social progression that happened when Labour was in power. This effects people every day yet it is rarely, if ever, talked about.

It is also time Labour outlined the key policies that will be central to their manifesto. The political waters have changed. Labour may not be able to form a government and may need to go into coalition. Ed Miliband painted a lovely picture but we now need more of the details. The NHS, education system and economy will look substantially different in ten years time and we need to know the policies that Labour will focus on. This will give them a much stronger bargaining position come 2015.

Finally, the speech was good but it wasn’t great. And to get through to the electorate it needed to be great. Ed Miliband is obviously no Bill Clinton nor Barack Obama but both Clinton and Obama’s speech had brilliantly crafted arcs in their speeches to the Democratic Convention. Ed Miliband’s speech bobbed around a central theme of ‘One Nation’. For Ed to bring a Labour government into power he needs to start delivering great speeches.

And if I planned it this way, it brings me on to my final point. I will be in the US from tomorrow helping on the Obama campaign and I’ll be blogging from the other side of the pond.